North York 两个同户型 condo 最近都降价超过 4%，open house 人流比去年少很多，经纪开始主动问我要不要接受带条件 offer。
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Breaking News
Calgary Real Estate March 2026: 2 Months Supply for Detached, 5 Months for Condos — What Buyers & Sellers Need to Know
1 4 月, 2026
7 min read
HousingAI Data-Driven · Counter-Narrative Stance
🏴 Not Affiliated with Any Real Estate Agency
📊 Only Presenting the Full Picture
April 1, 2026 · Based on Official CREB® March 2026 Data
📊 Source: Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB®), Released April 1, 2026
⚡ Key Finding: Structural Divergence Beneath the Surface of "Balanced" Headlines
Detached: 2.1 Months Supply · Seller's Market
Condo: Nearly 5 Months Supply · Buyer's Market
Citywide Inventory: Above 10-Year Average but Unevenly Distributed
📌 Counter-Narrative Stance
While market sentiment swings with headline "aggregate data," we maintain a data-driven counter-narrative stance. CREB®'s March 2026 data shows: citywide residential sales fell 13% year-over-year, inventory rose, and the composite benchmark price dropped over 4% from last year—aggregate indicators easily simplified into a "market cooling" narrative.
But beneath the surface, data reveals a different reality: the detached market has just 2.1 months of supply, with SNLR rising to 61% and prices rising month-over-month; while the condo market inventory is approaching historical highs not seen since the 2008 financial crisis, SNLR sits at 40%, and prices are down over 9% year-over-year. This structural divergence is the true picture decision-makers must confront.
Our stance: Present the full data picture when pessimism spreads; highlight structural risks when market euphoria takes hold. No beautification, no fear-mongering—just let the data speak.
I. The Aggregate Illusion: Why "Balanced" is Misleading
📉 1,881 Units
March Citywide Residential Sales
Up from February, but down 13% year-over-year and below long-term March averages. The decline is primarily driven by pullbacks in apartment activity, while detached sales are also below long-term trends due to limited supply choice.
🏠 $565,600
March Composite Benchmark Price
Up nearly 1% from February, but down 4.2% year-over-year. Q1 data shows: low-density homes posted modest to stable price conditions, while apartment prices continued to slide—down another 3% compared to Q4 2025.
⚠️ Chief Economist's Warning: "When considering total residential housing statistics, conditions appear to be relatively balanced. However, when we look deeper, we are seeing a market that ranges from tighter conditions for detached homes to the apartment sector, where conditions tend to favor the buyer. As expected, this is supporting upward momentum in detached prices and downward pressure in the apartment condominium sector." — Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB® Chief Economist
Counter-Narrative Interpretation: "Aggregate balance" is a deeply misleading summary. It masks the extreme divergence between a detached market starved of supply and a condo market drowning in inventory. Investors relying on "aggregate balance" face the dual trap of "no detached homes to buy" and "condos stuck in a buyer's market."
II. Structural Divergence: Full Data by Property Type
🏡
Detached
Seller's Market · 2.1 Months Supply
March Sales982 Units52% of citywide total
New Listings1,614 UnitsSNLR rose to 61%
Inventory~2.1 MonthsBelow long-term averages
Benchmark Price$741,300Up month-over-month, down 3% YoY
📊 The Full Picture: Detached homes are Calgary's tightest segment. SNLR at 61%, inventory just over 2 months, with multiple districts (North West, West, South, South East, East) reporting under 2 months of supply. Prices show modest monthly gains, though still 3% below the 2025 peak of $766,600.
⚠️ Risk Note: Tight ≠ risk-free. Prices remain negative year-over-year, and district divergence is significant—the North East district continues to struggle with supply exceeding demand. Current price support is driven by supply depletion, not demand surge. If rates stay high, detached homes face liquidity risks.
🎯 Actionable Strategy: Owner-occupiers targeting North West/West/South should accept limited negotiation room and focus on properties with longer days-on-market. Investors should avoid chasing the "tight market" narrative, especially in the North East district.
🏘️
Semi-Detached
Balanced Market
March Sales193 UnitsUp YoY for second consecutive month
Inventory480 Units~2.5 months supply
Benchmark Price$686,100Up monthly, only 1% below last year
District DivergenceCity Centre/NW/WestPrices already above last year
📊 The Full Picture: Semi-detached is the only segment with year-over-year sales growth. New listings and inventory are aligning with long-term trends, and prices show resilience—City Centre, North West, and West districts already exceed last year's levels.
✅ Opportunity: A relatively stable segment suitable for move-up buyers seeking predictability. However, location matters—the North East remains the weak spot.
🏢
Row
Leaning Buyer's Market
Q1 Sales778 UnitsDown 19% YoY
New Listings1,581 UnitsSNLR below 50%
Inventory960 Units25% above long-term trends · ~3 months supply
Benchmark Price$423,900Down over 6% YoY
📊 The Full Picture: The row market is slowing significantly. Q1 sales plunged 19%, new listings are outpacing sales, driving inventory 25% above long-term averages. Prices are down over 6% year-over-year, with the North East district seeing the steepest declines.
⚠️ Risk Note: Continued supply growth with softening demand suggests row homes may be the next segment under pressure. Unless new listings slow, downward price pressure will persist.
🎯 Actionable Strategy: Buyers have strong bargaining power—focus on City Centre and West districts where prices have more support. Sellers should price realistically to avoid chasing a market that is shifting toward buyers.
🏙️
Apartment Condominium
Deep Buyer's Market
March Inventory1,774 UnitsApproaching 2008 financial crisis record highs
SNLR~40%Deep buyer's market threshold
Months of SupplyNearly 5 MonthsWell above balanced range
Benchmark Price$300,300Down 9.2% YoY · Another 3% drop in Q1
📊 The Full Picture: The condo market represents the most extreme end of Calgary's structural divergence. New supply continues to pour in while demand softens, driving inventory toward levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. SNLR at 40%, nearly 5 months of supply—prices have no support, with all districts posting declines and the South and North districts dropping over 4% in Q1 alone.
⚠️ Risk Note: Condos are trapped in a supply glut and demand weakness cycle. Unless new listings slow significantly, price adjustments are far from over. Highly leveraged investors face accumulating cash flow risks.
🎯 Actionable Strategy: Owner-occupiers can negotiate aggressively but must be prepared for further price declines during their holding period. Investors should exercise extreme caution—unless rental yields comfortably cover carrying costs and expectations for long-term appreciation are modest, waiting for an inventory turning point (SNLR above 50% with two consecutive quarters of inventory decline) is advisable.
📍 District Divergence (Based on CREB® Data): Even within the detached segment, conditions vary dramatically—North West, West, South, South East, and East districts have less than 2 months of supply (tight conditions), while the City Centre and North districts are relatively balanced, and the North East district continues to struggle with oversupply. For condos, the steepest price declines were in the South and North districts (over 4%), proving that location matters even within the same property type.
III. Surrounding Towns: Stability with Underlying Risks
Airdrie
SNLR > 50% · 3 months supply · Benchmark $512,800 (down 5% YoY)
Relatively balanced, but new home supply and increased options in Airdrie and north Calgary continue to pressure prices. Year-over-year prices remain down 5%—stability signals are still unclear.
Cochrane
SNLR below 50% · Rising inventory · Benchmark $561,200 (down 4% YoY)
New listings are outpacing sales, driving inventory gains as the market shifts from tight to balanced. Seasonal price gains haven't offset earlier pullbacks—watch inventory trends closely.
Okotoks
Q1 sales slightly down · Still low inventory · Benchmark $618,100 (down 1% YoY)
Strongest price resilience among surrounding towns, with modest gains since late 2025. However, slowing sales and rising inventory trends warrant caution—not yet out of the adjustment phase.
IV. Data-Driven Framework: Abandon Aggregate Narratives, Embrace Structural Divergence
📊 Decision Matrix Based on CREB® March 2026 Data
🏡 Detached (Owner-Occupier)
Prioritize North West/West/South districts where supply is tight. Accept limited negotiation room. Be cautious in the North East. Prepare for potential price volatility.
Supply depletion may amplify price swings. High interest rate sensitivity.
🏘️ Semi-Detached (Owner-Occupier/Investor)
Stable choice. Focus on City Centre/North West/West districts where prices have already turned positive year-over-year.
Relatively balanced market with manageable risk.
🏢 Row (Owner-Occupier/Investor)
Buyers have strong bargaining power. Prioritize City Centre and West districts. Sellers should price realistically.
Accelerating inventory accumulation, persistent downward price pressure.
🏙️ Condo (Owner-Occupier/Investor)
Owner-occupiers can negotiate aggressively but must expect further price declines. Investors: extreme caution. Wait for inventory turning point.
Supply glut and demand weakness—price adjustments likely far from over.
Final Conclusion: The defining characteristic of Calgary's March 2026 housing market is not "aggregate balance"—it's structural divergence. The detached market is tight due to supply depletion, yet prices remain down year-over-year. The condo market is trapped between a supply surge and softening demand, with inventory approaching crisis-era highs. Semi-detached is the most stable segment, while row homes are sliding toward a buyer's market.
Counter-Narrative Summary: No single indicator—total sales, composite price, average inventory—can capture the full market picture. The coexistence of "tight detached" and "deep buyer's market for condos" is the reality decision-makers must confront. We remain committed: presenting structural opportunities when pessimism spreads, and highlighting risks when euphoria takes hold. Not affiliated with any agency—serving only the data.
—— HousingAI · Data-Driven Counter-Narrative Stance
📚 Data Sources & Report Notes
Sole Primary Source: Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB®), Trends differ based on property type, released April 1, 2026. Author: Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB® Chief Economist.
Data Period: March 2026 monthly statistics and Q1 2026 aggregate data.
Indicator Definitions: All prices are unadjusted benchmark prices. SNLR = monthly sales / monthly new listings. Months of supply = ending inventory / monthly sales.
Stance Statement: This report is an independent data analysis, not affiliated with any real estate agency, developer, or brokerage. All conclusions are based solely on public data and do not constitute investment advice. Readers should make independent decisions based on their financial circumstances.
HousingAI · Data-Driven Counter-Narrative Stance · Not Affiliated with Any Real Estate Agency
Based on official CREB® data released April 1, 2026. Highlighting risks during market euphoria, presenting the full picture when pessimism spreads.
HousingAI Market Sentiment
加拿大华人房产市场情绪：整体偏看跌📉
四大城市的房地产市场情绪正在继续分化。多伦多与温哥华 Condo 仍偏悲观，蒙特利尔独立屋相对更稳，而卡尔加里已经从全面偏热转向“独立屋偏稳、公寓与联排转弱”的结构性分化。
1284市场参与者
426本地市场观察
61%当前看跌📉情绪
Toronto讨论热度最高地区
四大城市细分市场情绪
不同城市、不同房产类型，情绪正在明显分化
基于城市、房产类型、用户立场与本地观察生成。
城市 / 类型
公寓 Condo
联排住宅
独立屋
租房市场
多伦多
公寓 Condo
61% 看跌📉
联排住宅
47% 观望👀
独立屋
48% 观望👀
租房市场
45% 观望👀
温哥华
公寓 Condo
57% 看跌📉
联排住宅
48% 观望👀
独立屋
51% 观望👀
租房市场
46% 观望👀
蒙特利尔
公寓 Condo
46% 观望👀
联排住宅
47% 观望👀
独立屋
53% 看涨📈
租房市场
49% 观望👀
卡尔加里
公寓 Condo
58% 看跌📉
联排住宅
48% 观望👀
独立屋
52% 看涨📈
租房市场
46% 观望👀
多伦多 Condo
61% 看跌📉
▼ 续贷焦虑仍是核心情绪
卡尔加里 Condo
Buyer Market
▼ 公寓库存高位，议价空间扩大
Montreal Detached
53% 看涨📈
▲ 独立屋价格仍维持温和上行
温哥华 Condo
Inventory ↑
▼ 多户型销售继续弱于独立屋
Step 1 · Market Position
你怎么看四大城市不同房产类型的市场？
先选城市和房产类型，再表达立场
房产市场不是一个整体。请先选择城市与房产类型，再表达你对这个细分市场的判断。多伦多 Condo、温哥华 Condo、蒙特利尔联排住宅、卡尔加里独立屋的看涨看跌情况可能完全不同。
426 条本地观察
多伦多 讨论热度最高
①选择城市与房产类型
②选择看涨 / 看跌 / 观望
③分享当地市场观察
选择城市
选择房产类型
当前投票组合
多伦多 · Condo · 看跌📉
Sentiment Bars
看跌📉
61%
看涨📈
23%
观望👀
16%
提交本地市场观察
请写真实市场行为：open house、降价、listing、抢 offer、租房竞争、续贷压力或华人买家变化。
社区情绪 AI 总结
最近越来越多读者开始怀疑 Toronto condo 是否已经到底，但续贷压力😰仍然是目前最常被提到的风险。Markham 和 Richmond Hill 的家庭型买家仍在看房，Downtown condo 的降价和库存讨论更集中。
社区观点
按 likes、credibility、观察质量、地区相关性与同立场支持度排序。
WestCoastWatch · 温哥华 · 公寓 Condo · 投资者
Burnaby 几个新盘最近在悄悄加佣返现，二手 condo 的带看没有去年春天密集，卖家对议价的抵触明显变弱。
14 likes
MontrealMover · 蒙特利尔 · 独立屋 · 首次购房者
Montreal 西岛独立屋近期只要定价不过分，家庭买家仍然会快速下 offer，说明预算型自住需求还在往回走。
12 likes
RentForever · 多伦多 · 租房市场 · 租房者
Downtown 租房竞争比春季稍弱，但好楼层还是很快被订走。我会继续租一年，看续贷潮之后 condo listing 会不会更多。
11 likes
PrairieBidder · 卡尔加里 · 独立屋 · 新移民
Calgary 西北区 detached 新挂牌两周内还是能吸引多轮看房，外省搬入家庭明显增加，买家情绪比多伦多积极。
10 likes
市场趋势 / Heatmap
过去14天：看跌📉情绪下降，首次购房讨论增加。
Toronto
61% 看跌
61% 看跌
Markham
42% 看涨
42% 看涨
Richmond Hill
续贷压力
续贷压力
Vancouver
观望
观望
Montreal
分歧
分歧