Canada’s Great Rebalancing: June 2026 Housing Market Data Shows Prices May Have Found a Floor

So I have been watching the Canadian housing market closely for a while now, and the latest data from June 2026 is really interesting. There is a lot of talk about whether prices have bottomed out, and the numbers are starting to paint an ambiguous picture.

The Royal LePage quarterly report for Q1 shows national home prices down 2 percent year-over-year but up 0.7 percent from the previous month. That small monthly uptick is significant — it suggests that after months of decline, something has shifted. The market is not crashing anymore; it is stabilizing.

Looking at the Greater Toronto Area specifically, the average home price dropped 5.0 percent year-over-year to $1,017,796. The City of Toronto average fell 4.6 percent to $1,091,761. These are real declines from the peak, but they are not freefall levels. The market has absorbed a lot of pain already.

Honestly, what surprises me most is Ottawa. While Hamilton dropped 8.6 percent to $721,075 — the biggest decline of any major city — Ottawa actually went UP 0.7 percent year-over-year to $712,184. That is defying the national trend entirely.

The CREA data for May shows new listings dropped 12.7 percent, which means fewer sellers are willing to list at current prices. But total active inventory is still 49 percent above the ten-year average for March. That means buyers still have negotiating power — there are more houses available than in recent years.

The March sales data from Ontario showed 12,424 homes sold, up 32 percent from February but essentially flat year-over-year. Sales are recovering seasonally, but not with enough force to drive strong growth yet.

What this tells me is that we are in a “Great Rebalancing” phase. Prices have come down from unsustainable levels, inventory is higher than usual giving buyers more choice and leverage, but the market is not collapsing — it is finding equilibrium. For first-time buyers who have been watching from the sidelines, this might be a reasonable window to start looking. But don’t expect prices to surge back up anytime soon.