The Two Sides of the HST Rebate: GTA Low-Rise Recovers, Condo Market Continues to Struggle ——BILD May Report: Low-Rise Sales Beat 10-Year Average by 26%, But Condos Plunge 89%
The Two Sides of the HST Rebate: GTA Low-Rise Recovers, Condo Market Continues to Struggle
——BILD May Report: Low-Rise Sales Beat 10-Year Average by 26%, But Condos Plunge 89%
Data source: BILD 2026-06-22 | Altus Group | CP24 | Toronto Star
📢 On June 22, 2026, BILD released its May GTA new home market report: Low-rise (single-family homes, townhomes) sales reached 830 units, surpassing the 10-year average for the second consecutive month (+26%) — nearly four times the volume from May 2025. But condos sold just 193 units, a staggering 89% below the 10-year average, hitting a historic low. One policy, two worlds — the HST rebate is reshaping the GTA new home market’s product mix.
📌 One Policy, Two Worlds
On April 1, 2026, the Ontario and federal governments’ joint new-home HST rebate took effect — all buyers (not just first-timers) purchasing a new home valued up to $1.5 million are eligible for up to $130,000 in tax relief. The one-year program is expected to provide $2.2 billion in tax relief and stimulate 8,000 new housing starts.
Two months of data reveal a tale of two markets: Low-rise (single-family homes, townhomes) sales surpassed the 10-year average for the second consecutive month, reaching 830 units in May (+26%) — nearly four times the volume from May 2025. Meanwhile, condos sold just 193 units, a staggering 89% below the 10-year average, hitting a historic low.
Buyer case study: A young engineer working in Toronto told CP24: “My wife and I were looking at condo pre-construction, but after the HST rebate was announced, we realized a low-rise townhome was a better deal. At $1.3M with the rebate, the effective cost is lower than a condo — and we get a backyard. We decided to switch to the low-rise market.” This explains why capital is flowing from high-rise to low-rise.
Core thesis: The HST rebate is reshaping the GTA’s new home product mix — low-rise homes are the policy’s primary beneficiaries, while the condo market remains mired in inventory overhang, a price floor, and near-zero new project launches.
I. Low-Rise’s Spring: Consecutive Months Above the 10-Year Average
Section conclusion: Low-rise homes (detached, semi-detached, linked, and townhomes) are the HST rebate’s biggest beneficiaries. April sales of 901 units (+21% above the 10-year average) and May sales of 830 units (+26% above the 10-year average) — two consecutive months above historical norms, ending a three-year slump.
📈 Sales Data
- April 2026: 901 low-rise units sold — a significant YoY increase, 21% above the 10-year average — the first time in three years the low-rise market has broken through historical norms
- May 2026: 830 low-rise units sold — 26% above the 10-year average, the second consecutive month of outperformance
- YoY comparison: Only 208 low-rise units sold in May 2025 — May 2026 was nearly four times that volume
- Regional distribution: Toronto led low-rise sales, followed by Peel and York regions; Simcoe County sold 56 units at a weighted average price of $1,143,359
🏷️ Price Trends
- May benchmark price: $1,427,543 (gross, before HST rebate)
- YoY change: -5.2% over the past 12 months
- Key observation: BILD and Altus Group noted prices were “almost flat” before and after the rebate — suggesting the full rebate benefit is being passed through to consumers, with developers not raising prices to capture the policy’s value
💡 BILD COO Justin Sherwood: “The rebate program took effect April 1, and seeing immediate low-rise sales increases proves buyer demand and market affordability improvements.”
II. Condo’s Continued Pain: 89% Plunge and the “Price Floor”
Section conclusion: In stark contrast to low-rise, the condo market has shown almost no response to the HST rebate. Just 193 units sold in May — 89% below the 10-year average, and roughly 45% below May 2025 levels (approx. 350 units). Only 1 new condo project has launched in all of 2026 — the market is in a deep freeze.
📉 Sales Data
- April 2026: 199 condo units sold — 88% below the 10-year average
- May 2026: 193 condo units sold — 89% below the 10-year average — roughly 45% below May 2025 (approx. 350 units)
- Regional distribution: Toronto 83 units (highest), Peel 46, York 30, Halton 22, Durham 12
- New project launches: Only 1 new condo project has launched in all of 2026
- The reality: 193 units means hundreds of condo sales centres across the GTA averaged less than 1 sale each in May — many effectively posted “zero” for the month
🏷️ Price & Inventory
- May benchmark price: $1,029,489 — described by Altus Group as an “apparent price floor“
- Inventory overhang: May unsold new home inventory at 18,763 units, of which 13,138 are condos (70%)
- Months of inventory: Based on the last 12 months of average sales, total inventory stands at 32 months — but BILD cautions this is inflated by historically low sales and will fall rapidly as sales recover
⚠️ Altus Group Research Manager Edward Jegg’s analysis: Condo sales have failed to benefit from the rebate, primarily because high-rise construction timelines far exceed the one-year policy window — new projects simply cannot meet the deadline. Meanwhile, high land and development charges have become sunk costs, leaving developers with little room to cut prices.
III. Policy Implementation Uncertainty: Federal Legislation Lag and Buyer Hesitation
Section conclusion: Although the policy took effect April 1, federal enabling legislation has not yet been finalized. Implementation uncertainty has left some buyers on the sidelines. Ontario’s Housing Minister has publicly urged Ottawa to “get it done.”
📋 Policy Status
- Policy details: Up to $130,000 HST rebate on new homes valued up to $1.5M (8% provincial + 5% federal components)
- Window: April 1, 2026 to March 31, 2027
- Eligibility: Property must be used as a primary residence or residential rental
- Legislative status: Ontario has passed its budget, but federal legislation has not yet taken effect; implementation details are still being finalized
- Scale: Expected to provide $2.2 billion in tax relief and stimulate 8,000 housing starts
- ⚠️ Critical practical note: The rebate is typically claimed after closing (via CRA) or applied as a credit by the developer at closing. Buyers must still have full down payment funds available at signing — the rebate cannot be used to reduce initial down payment requirements.
🗣️ Industry Calls
- BILD COO Justin Sherwood: “While new single-family home sales surpassed the 10-year average for a second straight month, they did slightly decrease from April. This decrease is largely due to potential new homebuyers still waiting on the sidelines for clarity on how the HST rebate will be administered.”
- Ontario Housing Minister Rob Flack: “Every day is a wasted day. They need to pass a regulation to make it work through the CRA. We’re waiting on them patiently, maybe not so patiently — they need to get it done.”
- Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner: “I have people reaching out to my office saying, ‘Should I buy a house right now or not? Will I get the HST taken off or not?’ It’s creating disruptions in the market at a time when we’re facing the worst housing crisis in Ontario’s history.”
💡 Outlook: Sherwood emphasized that “providing clarity on these details will ensure that the momentum experienced since April continues.” Once federal legislation passes and implementation details are clarified, pent-up demand — particularly in the condo sector — could be released.
IV. Structural Divergence: Low-Rise vs. Condo — Why Such Different Policy Outcomes?
Section conclusion: The same policy produces dramatically different outcomes across product types due to differences in construction timelines, pricing mechanisms, and eligibility requirements. Low-rise benefits from faster turnover and clear pricing, while condos are trapped by legacy inventory and the inability to meet the “substantially completed” requirement.
- Shorter construction timeline — can complete within the policy window
- Clear pricing — rebate benefit 100% passed through to buyers
- Pent-up demand released
- Two consecutive months above 10-year average
- High-rise construction timelines far exceed the one-year policy window — new projects cannot meet the deadline
- High land and development charges have become sunk costs — developers lack room to cut prices
- Only 1 new project launched in all of 2026 — supply frozen
- May sales just 193 units (-89%) — market in deep freeze
💡 Altus Group Research Manager Edward Jegg: “Condominium apartment sales have not to date benefited from the rebate program for two main reasons: much of the existing product is locked into legacy pricing with higher costs; and any new high-rise projects are unlikely to be able to meet the ‘substantially completed’ requirement of the HST rebate program.”
V. HousingAI Decision Roadmap: Practical Guide for Buyers & Developers
Section conclusion: Based on BILD data and the current policy environment, different market participants should adopt differentiated strategies — families with children should capitalize on the low-rise rebate window, while condo buyers should wait for policy clarity.
- Full rebate benefit passed through to consumers — current entry window is open
- Prioritize projects that are already completed or can close by March 2027
- Before signing, confirm the developer will apply the rebate as a credit at closing, rather than requiring you to claim it later from the CRA
- Consider price-advantaged areas like Simcoe County (weighted average $1.14M) for better leverage
- Current strategy: Wait for policy clarity — the condo market could see a turnaround once federal legislation passes
- Focus on completed but unsold condo inventory (13,138 units) — more room for negotiation
- Condo benchmark $1.03M is at the “price floor,” but confirm whether developers are passing the rebate through
- For higher risk tolerance: consider entering after Q4 2026 federal legislation is clarified
- Low-rise market: Momentum is building — accelerate launches, but ensure projects can complete by March 2027
- Condo market: Only 1 new project launched in 2026 — avoid launching new high-rise projects at this time
- Consider converting some condo projects to rental or waiting for policy details to be clarified
- Use the current inventory overhang (18,763 units) to assess pricing strategy and cost structure sustainability
⚠️ Macro risk note: Federal legislative delays could result in rebate payment delays, impacting buyer cash flow planning. Additionally, if a macroeconomic downturn or renewal cliff pressures lead to increased resale market supply, new home demand could be suppressed — stress-test all decisions before committing.
VI. Conclusion: HST Rebate Is a “Stimulant” for Low-Rise, But Condo’s “Winter” Is Not Over
📌 HousingAI Independent Analysis
BILD’s April and May data reveal a clear picture: The HST rebate is reshaping the GTA new home market’s product mix — but the reshaping is not balanced.
- Low-rise is seeing a “spring”: Two consecutive months above the 10-year average confirm pent-up demand is being released. The full rebate benefit is passing through to consumers — developers are not capturing the policy value through price increases.
- Condo remains in “winter”: May sales just 193 units (-89%), 13,138 units of inventory overhang, only 1 new project launched in all of 2026. High-rise construction timelines far exceed the policy window — this is the core obstacle.
- Policy uncertainty is suppressing a full recovery: Federal legislation has not yet passed, implementation details are unclear. Ontario’s Housing Minister has publicly urged Ottawa to “get it done.”
- Actionable guidance: Families with children should prioritize low-rise during the rebate window; condo buyers should wait for Q4 federal legislation clarity; developers should carefully evaluate new project timing.
⚠️ Risk Warning: This analysis is based on publicly available data from BILD, Altus Group, CP24, Toronto Star, and other sources. It does not constitute investment advice. Markets carry significant downside risks. Please consult licensed professionals for individual decisions.
- Building Industry and Land Development Association. (2026, June 22). Low-rise new home sales in GTA beat 10-year average for second consecutive month thanks to HST rebate. https://www.bildgta.ca/
- CP24. (2026, June 22). HST rebate helped boost new home sales in GTA last month but condo sector continues to struggle: report. https://www.cp24.com/
- Toronto Star. (2026, June 22). HST boost led to nearly fourfold increase in Toronto-area new single-family home sales in May. https://www.thestar.com/
- BNN Bloomberg. (2026, June 22). HST rebate helped boost new home sales in GTA last month but condo sector continues to struggle. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/
- CBC News. (2026, May 27). Home sales data for 1st month of the HST rebate window is out. https://www.cbc.ca/
- Storeys. (2026, May 27). Ontario’s HST Rebate Is Moving (Half) The Market: BILD. https://storeys.com/
- REMI Network. (2026, May 29). HST rebate has muted effect on April’s GTA condo market. https://www.reminetwork.com/
© 2026 HousingAI · Canadian Housing Market Data Research Center
Data sources: BILD | Altus Group | CP24 | Toronto Star | BNN Bloomberg | CBC News | Storeys | REMI Network
This report is based on public data for analytical purposes only and does not constitute investment advice of any kind.