Home Market Snapshot Exclusiv…
Exclusive Report

Exclusive: Toronto & Vancouver Condo Inventory Hits Record High — The Fig Leaf Has Been Torn Off

25,000+ completions flood the market as buyers vanish. 60 months of developer inventory. The numbers CMHC doesn't want you to ignore.

15 3 月, 2026 3 min read Condo MarketTorontoVancouverInventoryCMHCReal Estate
60mo
Months to sell Toronto's completed developer-held condo inventory
-11%
Vancouver condo price YoY decline
55%
New Toronto condos unsold at completion
25,572
Record condo completions in Toronto 2024
📊 Sources: CMHC, TRREB, Urbanation, TD Economics, REBGV·📅 Data as of Q4 2025 – Feb 2026

Canada’s two largest condo markets are drowning in supply — and the developers holding the bag have 60 months to find a buyer. The numbers reveal a structural crisis that will reshape urban housing for years to come.

📉

The Twin Collapse: Toronto & Vancouver by the Numbers

METRIC
TORONTO
VANCOUVER
STATUS
Avg Condo Price
$627K
$720K
YoY Price Change
−8.9%
−11.0%
🔴 Falling
Months of Supply
5.0 mo
8.0 mo
🔴 Buyer’s market
Q4 2025 Sales YoY
−15%
−10%
🔴 Declining
2024 Completions
25,572
12,442
⚠️ Record high

Both cities set completion records in 2024 — units built during the pandemic boom are now landing in a market with structurally weak demand. Toronto condo prices have been falling for 10 consecutive quarters, while Vancouver’s 11% year-over-year decline is the steepest since 2008.

🏗️

Developer Nightmare: 60 Months to Sell One Floor

Urbanation’s Q2 2025 data reveals the deepest crisis in the new-build sector. Toronto developers are sitting on 2,478 completed, unsold condo units — a 102% increase year-over-year, and more than five times higher than two years ago.

At the current rate of sales (131 units per quarter from completed buildings), the market faces 60 months of standing inventory. That is five years of supply with zero new launches.

Meanwhile, 55% of pre-construction Toronto condos went unsold as of Q1 2025 — just below the record 56% set at end of 2024. Lenders require 70% pre-sales before releasing construction financing. The math does not work: new condo construction starts collapsed 57% year-over-year in Q2 2025, and are now 84% below levels from two years ago.

The pipeline feeding Canada’s urban housing supply has effectively been turned off. Today’s glut will become tomorrow’s shortage — and nobody is talking about it.

⚠️

The Supply Paradox: Flood Today, Famine Tomorrow

Canada’s condo crisis is a story of two timelines running in opposite directions. Right now: record completions, collapsing demand, prices in freefall. Developers are cancelling projects at 5–10x the rate of 2022.

By 2027–2028: the construction pipeline — already down 41% from its peak of 105,864 units — will produce a severe supply shortage. Units that should have broken ground in 2024–2025 were never started.

TD Economics forecasts condo prices will fall a total of 15–20% from their 2023 peak by end of 2025, with only a modest recovery in 2026. Re/Max Canada warns that GTA absorption of surplus inventory is unlikely to meaningfully improve before mid-2026.

“The market has entered a phase of the downturn that is really starting to wreak havoc. Project cancellations are mounting, construction starts are collapsing, jobs are being lost.” — Urbanation President, Q2 2025
🤖 AI Insight
The 60-month developer inventory figure is the single most alarming data point in this cycle. It signals that the condo correction is not a blip — it is a multi-year structural unwind with no quick fix in sight. Investors still holding pre-construction assignments face a painful reckoning as resale prices undercut their purchase price by $200–300 per square foot.


延伸阅读

多伦多买房完全指南

HousingAI Market Sentiment
加拿大华人房产市场情绪:整体偏看跌📉
四大城市的房地产市场情绪正在继续分化。多伦多与温哥华 Condo 仍偏悲观,蒙特利尔独立屋相对更稳,而卡尔加里已经从全面偏热转向“独立屋偏稳、公寓与联排转弱”的结构性分化。
1284市场参与者
426本地市场观察
61%当前看跌📉情绪
Toronto讨论热度最高地区
四大城市细分市场情绪

不同城市、不同房产类型,情绪正在明显分化

基于城市、房产类型、用户立场与本地观察生成。

城市 / 类型
公寓 Condo
联排住宅
独立屋
租房市场
多伦多
公寓 Condo
61% 看跌📉
联排住宅
47% 观望👀
独立屋
48% 观望👀
租房市场
45% 观望👀
温哥华
公寓 Condo
57% 看跌📉
联排住宅
48% 观望👀
独立屋
51% 观望👀
租房市场
46% 观望👀
蒙特利尔
公寓 Condo
46% 观望👀
联排住宅
47% 观望👀
独立屋
53% 看涨📈
租房市场
49% 观望👀
卡尔加里
公寓 Condo
58% 看跌📉
联排住宅
48% 观望👀
独立屋
52% 看涨📈
租房市场
46% 观望👀
多伦多 Condo
61% 看跌📉
▼ 续贷焦虑仍是核心情绪
卡尔加里 Condo
Buyer Market
▼ 公寓库存高位,议价空间扩大
Montreal Detached
53% 看涨📈
▲ 独立屋价格仍维持温和上行
温哥华 Condo
Inventory ↑
▼ 多户型销售继续弱于独立屋
Step 1 · Market Position

你怎么看四大城市不同房产类型的市场?

先选城市和房产类型,再表达立场
房产市场不是一个整体。请先选择城市与房产类型,再表达你对这个细分市场的判断。多伦多 Condo、温哥华 Condo、蒙特利尔联排住宅、卡尔加里独立屋的看涨看跌情况可能完全不同。
426 条本地观察
多伦多 讨论热度最高
选择城市与房产类型
选择看涨 / 看跌 / 观望
分享当地市场观察
选择城市
选择房产类型
当前投票组合
多伦多 · Condo · 看跌📉

Sentiment Bars

看跌📉
61%
看涨📈
23%
观望👀
16%

提交本地市场观察

请写真实市场行为:open house、降价、listing、抢 offer、租房竞争、续贷压力或华人买家变化。

社区情绪 AI 总结

最近越来越多读者开始怀疑 Toronto condo 是否已经到底,但续贷压力😰仍然是目前最常被提到的风险。Markham 和 Richmond Hill 的家庭型买家仍在看房,Downtown condo 的降价和库存讨论更集中。

社区观点

按 likes、credibility、观察质量、地区相关性与同立场支持度排序。

Discussion Starter
CondoBagholder · 多伦多 · 公寓 Condo · 房主

North York 两个同户型 condo 最近都降价超过 4%,open house 人流比去年少很多,经纪开始主动问我要不要接受带条件 offer。

18 likes
Discussion Starter
WestCoastWatch · 温哥华 · 公寓 Condo · 投资者

Burnaby 几个新盘最近在悄悄加佣返现,二手 condo 的带看没有去年春天密集,卖家对议价的抵触明显变弱。

14 likes
Discussion Starter
MontrealMover · 蒙特利尔 · 独立屋 · 首次购房者

Montreal 西岛独立屋近期只要定价不过分,家庭买家仍然会快速下 offer,说明预算型自住需求还在往回走。

12 likes
Discussion Starter
RentForever · 多伦多 · 租房市场 · 租房者

Downtown 租房竞争比春季稍弱,但好楼层还是很快被订走。我会继续租一年,看续贷潮之后 condo listing 会不会更多。

11 likes
Discussion Starter
PrairieBidder · 卡尔加里 · 独立屋 · 新移民

Calgary 西北区 detached 新挂牌两周内还是能吸引多轮看房,外省搬入家庭明显增加,买家情绪比多伦多积极。

10 likes

市场趋势 / Heatmap

过去14天:看跌📉情绪下降,首次购房讨论增加。

Toronto
61% 看跌
Markham
42% 看涨
Richmond Hill
续贷压力
Vancouver
观望
Montreal
分歧