I. Total Sales: 116% YoY Surge, but the Base is Too Low

First, let's look at the core numbers:

Breaking it down:

• Single-Family and Townhomes are performing reasonably well: 685 units, only 12% below the ten-year average. This segment of the market is actually nearing normal levels.
• Condos remain dismal: 263 units, 86% below the ten-year average. Investors have not returned, and the pressure from the pre-construction assignment market continues to propagate. For a detailed analysis of the pre-construction market, please refer to the deep dive into the Toronto pre-construction crisis in "Canada Real Estate 2026: Decoding the Structural Trap."

Year-to-date data also reveals the trend:

• Total sales for the first three months of 2026 were 1,771 units, a 35% increase over the same period in 2025—but still 72% below the ten-year average.
• Single-family homes sold 1,231 units, up 56%; condos sold only 540 units, remaining almost stagnant (+3%).

BILD COO Justin Sherwood stated bluntly: "The March data indeed shows progress, but it must be viewed in a historical context. Last March was the worst March on record (only 439 units). The good news is that we have finally emerged from the deepest trough, but we are still far from normal."

II. Prices: Condos Bottoming Out, Single-Family Still Dropping

Altus Group Research Manager Edward Jegg noted: "The sales growth in March was primarily concentrated in a few projects with more aggressive pricing. This indicates that buyers are not absent; they are simply waiting for the right price." This aligns perfectly with the "Price Psychological Threshold" analysis in our "2026 Buyer's Market Practical Guide"—transactions only occur when prices drop within the buyer's psychological expectation range.

The market is not lacking buyers, but rather the gap in price expectations between buyers and sellers is too wide. Once developers are willing to lower prices, buyers will act.

2.1 Condo Price per Square Foot: Dropped to $1,298

The Altus report includes a more granular indicator: the benchmark price per square foot for condos.

• March 2026: $1,298/sq ft
• Down approximately 10% from the 2022 peak (approx. $1,450/sq ft)
• Condo unit sizes are also shrinking, indicating that developers are reducing total prices to adapt to buyer affordability

2.2 Why are Single-Family Home Prices Still Dropping?

The 7.7% year-over-year decline in single-family home prices is due to two reasons:

• Product Mix Change: More entry-level townhomes are entering the market, pulling down the average price
• Proactive Developer Price Cuts: To clear inventory, many projects are offering promotions

Looking at the long-term chart, the single-family benchmark price has fallen from the 2022 peak of $1,800,000+ to $1,413,863, but it is still more than 1.5 times the level before 2020. For the impact of price drops on holders, please read "What to Do If You Can't Sell Your House in 2026?" and "Deep Analysis of Negative Cash Flow for Investment Properties in 2026."

III. Regional Divergence: Peel Region Leading, Durham Stalling

Several noteworthy phenomena:

• Explosive Growth in Peel Region (Mississauga, Brampton): Total sales of 373 units, a 554% surge YoY. This is primarily due to several new project launches and flexible pricing strategies in the region.
• Strong Demand for Single-Family Homes in York Region: 302 single-family home sales, the highest in the GTA. Family buyers in Markham and Richmond Hill are still entering the market.
• Condos in Downtown Toronto Remain Sluggish: Only 48 units sold, a 48% decrease YoY. Investors are still on the sidelines, and there is a severe backlog of pre-construction assignments. For overall risk analysis of the Toronto market, refer to the specific analysis of Toronto in "Canada Real Estate 2026: Decoding the Structural Trap."
• Condos in Durham Region Almost Non-Existent: Only 3 units sold. The condo market in emerging regions is still in a deep freeze.

IV. Inventory: Falling Below 20,000 Units for the First Time in 19 Months

Inventory falling below 20,000 units seems positive, but it requires cautious interpretation:

• Condo Inventory Remains High: 13,726 units, of which 2,320 units are "completed but unsold" ready-made inventory—these homes are fully built, but no one is buying them.
• Under-Construction Inventory: 6,649 units: Projects that have already broken ground and are under construction; this part of the inventory carries the most pressure.
• Pre-Construction Inventory: 4,757 units: Pre-construction homes that haven't started building; this part is relatively flexible, as developers can delay launches.
• The "Months of Inventory" Calculation is Deceptive: Because sales over the past 12 months were extremely low, even a small drop in inventory results in a very high "months of inventory" figure. Once sales recover, this number will drop rapidly.

BILD specifically warns in the report: "When a market begins to recover after a period of sustained low sales, the months-of-inventory statistic should be interpreted with caution. It is calculated by dividing current inventory by the average sales over the past 12 months—and sales over the last 12 months have been very low. As sales increase, the months of inventory will drop quickly."

V. Simcoe County: Single-Family Demand Slowing

During the pandemic, many people moved to Simcoe County, but this demand is now fading. Tightening remote work policies, combined with rising commuting costs, have led to a nearly 40% year-over-year decline in new home demand in the region.

VI. HST Exemption: The Biggest Variable for the April Market

Effective April 1, 2026, the full HST exemption policy for new home purchases, jointly introduced by the Federal and Ontario governments, has officially come into effect. Buyers purchasing a new primary residence will no longer be required to pay the 8% Ontario portion of the HST. For policy details, refer to the detailed explanation of HST rebates in "Deep Analysis of Ontario's New Real Estate Policies."

Feedback from developers obtained by BILD indicates that: in the first two weeks of April, visiting and closing activities at sales centers have "increased significantly."

• Some projects have already reported April sales exceeding the entire month of March
• Developers are still adjusting pricing strategies, with some projects passing a portion of the HST savings on to buyers
• BILD expects overall market activity for the year to increase significantly due to the HST policy

However, it should be noted that the HST exemption applies only to primary residence buyers; investors do not benefit. This means the policy primarily benefits end-users rather than speculative demand.

VII. Developer Strategies: Cut Prices to Clear Inventory, or Hold Out?

A sentence in the Altus report is worth reading repeatedly: "Sales growth was primarily concentrated in a few projects with more aggressive pricing."

What does this mean? It means the current market is a price-driven market. Whoever is willing to cut prices can sell; those who are not will see their inventory pile up. This is completely consistent with the "K-Shape Divergence" logic analyzed in our "2026 Canada Real Estate Survival and Arbitrage Encyclopedia"—there is no longer a market consensus, and the gap in price expectations between buyers and sellers has reached a historical high.

Developers are in a split situation:

• Developers with tight cash flow: Must cut prices to clear inventory and recover funds. The activity in the Peel region follows this logic.
• Developers with ample funds: Prefer to hold out rather than cut prices, especially for high-end projects in core locations.

The trend for the remainder of 2026 will largely depend on developer pricing strategies. If more projects are willing to trade price for volume, the market will continue to recover; if everyone holds out, transaction volumes will remain low.

For homebuyers, understanding the current market cycle is crucial. Our "2026 Mortgage Arbitrage Guide" can help you make smarter decisions regarding interest rate choices, while the "2026 Buyer's Market Practical Guide" provides specific negotiation strategies and analysis of seller psychology.

VIII. Summary: Signs of Bottoming Out are Evident, but "Recovery" is Far Off

BILD predicts: "The market has begun to accumulate momentum. The March recovery combined with the April HST policy push makes the second half of the year worth anticipating."

But looking calmly, the current market is still fragile. Interest rates remain high, economic uncertainty persists, and the pre-construction assignment market is still shedding bubbles—any deterioration in these variables could extinguish the small spark of recovery. For overall market risk, further reading is available in "Canada Real Estate 2026: Decoding the Structural Trap" and "2026 Canada Real Estate Survival and Arbitrage Encyclopedia."

IX. Frequently Asked Questions