North York 两个同户型 condo 最近都降价超过 4%，open house 人流比去年少很多，经纪开始主动问我要不要接受带条件 offer。
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Breaking News
A wave of mortgage defaults in Canada has spread to the middle class
Homeowners with stronger credit scores are increasingly defaulting on their mortgage payments — an alarming trend that reveals the impact of higher mortgage rates on traditionally lower-risk borrowers. Equifax data shows the “severe payment shock” is actively spreading from subprime into the established middle class.
The Credit Score Breakdown: Who’s Defaulting?
New data from Equifax Canada show defaults growing not only for the weakest subprime borrowers, but also for more financially stable homeowners with credit scores in the 621 to 680 range — the middle-tiered “near-prime” group. Equifax’s credit scores are rated on a scale from 320 through 880, with prime borrowers above 660 and the weakest below 580.
BORROWER TYPE
CREDIT SCORE
DELINQUENCY RATE
YoY CHANGE
Super Prime
760-880
0.01%
+4.5%
Prime
660-759
—
+32.5%
Near-Prime
621-680
0.44%
+31%
Subprime 1
521-580
—
+28%
Subprime 2
320-520
15.3%
+23%
Across the country, the near-prime delinquency rate increased by 31% from Q4 2024 to Q4 2025 — an even faster pace than the weakest subprime borrowers (23% and 28%). The national delinquency rate across all borrowers was 0.26% at the end of last year.
📢 Equifax Statement
“There is an alarming acceleration of financial stress that is rapidly expanding to more creditworthy borrowers. Severe payment shock is actively spreading from subprime borrowers into the established middle class.”
The Ground Zero: Toronto & Vancouver Lead the Surge
Homeowners in the priciest real estate markets are under the greatest stress. In Toronto, Vancouver, Brampton, Markham and Oshawa, delinquency rates have increased for every type of mortgage borrower.
BORROWER TYPE
DELINQUENCY RATE
YoY CHANGE
Near-Prime (621-680)
0.64%
+55.6%
Subprime (320-520)
19.97%
+50%
Prime (660-759)
—
+32.5%
Super Prime (760-880)
0.01%
+4.5%
The near-prime delinquency rate in these five markets jumped 55.6% year-over-year — nearly double the national average for this group. Kathy Catsiliras, Equifax Canada’s VP of analytical consulting, explains: “Having a good credit profile does not necessarily mean a customer has a lot of extra cash to handle higher mortgage payments. Savings are depleting because they’re just trying to keep up.”
Nearly two-thirds of near-prime homeowners took out loans from Canada’s five largest banks, according to Equifax. The rest got their mortgages from other lenders — meaning the risk is concentrated in the core of the financial system.
The Jumbo Loan Problem: Mortgages Over $800K
The Equifax data show that homeowners with the largest mortgages — home loans greater than $800,000 — are having more trouble making their payments. In Ontario and British Columbia, the delinquency rate on super-large loans increased by:
28%
ONTARIO
26%
BRITISH COLUMBIA
“Higher interest rates on a large mortgage can result in a significant jump in monthly payments,” Catsiliras said. Today, the popular five-year fixed rate mortgage is being advertised in the 3.6% to 4% range — still far above the sub-2% rates during the pandemic real estate boom.
“Nobody’s excluded. Savings are depleting because they’re just trying to keep up, trying to stay current, trying to stay on top of payments. So distress is really coming through.”
— Kathy Catsiliras, Vice-President of Analytical Consulting, Equifax Canada
The Big Picture: Delinquency Trends by Region
While the rate of delinquencies has climbed, the overall level remains low for near-prime and above borrowers. However, the trajectory is what concerns economists. A 31% year-over-year increase in near-prime defaults signals that financial stress is broadening — not narrowing.
*Toronto, Vancouver, Brampton, Markham, Oshawa combined
🤖 AI INSIGHT
The 31% surge in near-prime delinquencies is a canary in the coal mine for Canadian housing. This group (credit scores 621-680) represents the “established middle class” — households that survived the initial rate shock but are now depleting savings at an accelerating rate. The 55.6% spike in Toronto-Vancouver markets suggests geographic concentration of risk.
Two-thirds of these loans held by Big 5 banks creates systemic exposure. While absolute delinquency rates remain low (0.44% nationally), the rate of change is what matters for early warning. If this trajectory continues, expect broader credit tightening and accelerated forced selling in late 2026.
🛡️ FOR HOMEOWNERS: STRESS TEST YOURSELF
- Check your renewal date — If your mortgage renews in 2026, calculate your new payment at 4% (not the advertised teaser rate)
- Monitor your credit score — Equifax data shows payment shock hits before score deteriorates; don’t wait for the delinquency to appear
- Toronto/Vancouver owners with $800K+ mortgages — You are in the highest-risk cohort; build a 6-month payment buffer
- Near-prime borrowers (621-680) — You are the fastest-growing delinquency group; contact your lender now to discuss options
⏳ HOW WE GOT HERE: THE RATE SHOCK TIMELINE
2020-2021
Sub-2% mortgage rates fuel pandemic buying spree; borrowers qualify at record low payments
2022-2023
Bank of Canada hikes rates aggressively; variable-rate holders feel immediate pain
2024
Fixed-rate renewals begin at 4-6%; subprime defaults start climbing
Q4 2024 – Q4 2025
Near-prime delinquencies surge 31%; middle class savings depleted
2026 (Projected)
Further rate cuts may ease pressure, but payment shock is already baked in for renewals
Sources: Equifax Canada, CMHC. Data represents Q4 2024 to Q4 2025 comparisons unless otherwise noted.
Further Reading
HousingAI Market Sentiment
加拿大华人房产市场情绪：整体偏看跌📉
四大城市的房地产市场情绪正在继续分化。多伦多与温哥华 Condo 仍偏悲观，蒙特利尔独立屋相对更稳，而卡尔加里已经从全面偏热转向“独立屋偏稳、公寓与联排转弱”的结构性分化。
1284市场参与者
426本地市场观察
61%当前看跌📉情绪
Toronto讨论热度最高地区
四大城市细分市场情绪
不同城市、不同房产类型，情绪正在明显分化
基于城市、房产类型、用户立场与本地观察生成。
城市 / 类型
公寓 Condo
联排住宅
独立屋
租房市场
多伦多
公寓 Condo
61% 看跌📉
联排住宅
47% 观望👀
独立屋
48% 观望👀
租房市场
45% 观望👀
温哥华
公寓 Condo
57% 看跌📉
联排住宅
48% 观望👀
独立屋
51% 观望👀
租房市场
46% 观望👀
蒙特利尔
公寓 Condo
46% 观望👀
联排住宅
47% 观望👀
独立屋
53% 看涨📈
租房市场
49% 观望👀
卡尔加里
公寓 Condo
58% 看跌📉
联排住宅
48% 观望👀
独立屋
52% 看涨📈
租房市场
46% 观望👀
多伦多 Condo
61% 看跌📉
▼ 续贷焦虑仍是核心情绪
卡尔加里 Condo
Buyer Market
▼ 公寓库存高位，议价空间扩大
Montreal Detached
53% 看涨📈
▲ 独立屋价格仍维持温和上行
温哥华 Condo
Inventory ↑
▼ 多户型销售继续弱于独立屋
Step 1 · Market Position
你怎么看四大城市不同房产类型的市场？
先选城市和房产类型，再表达立场
房产市场不是一个整体。请先选择城市与房产类型，再表达你对这个细分市场的判断。多伦多 Condo、温哥华 Condo、蒙特利尔联排住宅、卡尔加里独立屋的看涨看跌情况可能完全不同。
426 条本地观察
多伦多 讨论热度最高
①选择城市与房产类型
②选择看涨 / 看跌 / 观望
③分享当地市场观察
选择城市
选择房产类型
当前投票组合
多伦多 · Condo · 看跌📉
Sentiment Bars
提交本地市场观察
请写真实市场行为：open house、降价、listing、抢 offer、租房竞争、续贷压力或华人买家变化。
社区情绪 AI 总结
最近越来越多读者开始怀疑 Toronto condo 是否已经到底，但续贷压力😰仍然是目前最常被提到的风险。Markham 和 Richmond Hill 的家庭型买家仍在看房，Downtown condo 的降价和库存讨论更集中。
社区观点
按 likes、credibility、观察质量、地区相关性与同立场支持度排序。
Burnaby 几个新盘最近在悄悄加佣返现，二手 condo 的带看没有去年春天密集，卖家对议价的抵触明显变弱。
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Montreal 西岛独立屋近期只要定价不过分，家庭买家仍然会快速下 offer，说明预算型自住需求还在往回走。
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Downtown 租房竞争比春季稍弱，但好楼层还是很快被订走。我会继续租一年，看续贷潮之后 condo listing 会不会更多。
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Calgary 西北区 detached 新挂牌两周内还是能吸引多轮看房，外省搬入家庭明显增加，买家情绪比多伦多积极。
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市场趋势 / Heatmap
过去14天：看跌📉情绪下降，首次购房讨论增加。
Toronto
61% 看跌
61% 看跌
Markham
42% 看涨
42% 看涨
Richmond Hill
续贷压力
续贷压力
Vancouver
观望
观望
Montreal
分歧
分歧