Canada’s Housing Market Shows Stabilization Signals: RBC’s Latest Report Confirms Six-City Divergence

Canada’s housing market has taken its most significant step toward recovery in over a year. But don’t be fooled by the headline numbers—the story is not one of uniform revival. It’s a tale of six cities, each on its own path, with supply-side adjustments doing most of the heavy lifting.

On July 15, 2026, RBC released its Monthly Housing Market Update, authored by Robert Hogue, the bank’s Assistant Chief Economist responsible for housing market analysis and provincial economic forecasting. The report’s single most important data point: the national MLS Home Price Index was flat month-over-month in June. For the first time in 17 months, the national price decline stopped.

This isn’t a “V-shaped rebound” scenario. If you’ve been following our previous analysis on Canada’s housing market in July 2026, you know that the divergence between sales activity and pricing has been widening. June sales rose just 0.5% month-over-month, a far cry from May’s 5.5% surge, yet price declines halted entirely. What does this tell us? The structural adjustment on the supply side is becoming the dominant force driving pricing.

## June data dissected: weak sales, steady prices

RBC data shows national real sales (seasonally adjusted and annualized) at 456,200 units in June. This single figure carries three layers of meaning:

The first layer: A 0.5% month-over-month gain extends the uptrend into a third consecutive month. Since bottoming out at the end of 2025, sales have been on a slow recovery trajectory.

The second layer: That 0.5% increase is a sharp deceleration from May’s 5.5% jump. In other words, the new demand impulse is fading. Prospective buyers remain hemmed in by bruised confidence, uncertain job markets, and stretched affordability in parts of the country.

The third layer: At 456,200 units, sales are still 12% below the 10-year average. Even with three straight months of gains, the national market remains far from “normal.”

Cross-referencing with CREA’s June 2026 data report, RBC’s reading holds up: sales are recovering, but modestly. The real turning point lies not in demand but in supply.

## Stabilizing inventory: the bedrock of price support

The most significant development this year has been stabilizing inventory, especially in Ontario and British Columbia, where active listings reached multi-decade highs in 2025 and continued rising through June.

But this is precisely what’s enabling price stabilization.

When the flood of new listings slows, seller competition eases. In softer markets, this reduction in competitive pressure is rebalancing negotiating power between buyers and sellers. RBC’s report is explicit: home values in parts of Southern Ontario, including the Greater Toronto Area, are beginning to steady.

The GTA’s MLS Home Price Index rose month-over-month in June—the first monthly gain in over a year. Hamilton, Kitchener-Waterloo, and Windsor also posted small monthly gains. Still, prices across almost all Ontario markets remain well below year-ago levels. Stabilization is not a return to peak; it’s a necessary first step.

British Columbia shows a similar pattern. Vancouver’s MLS HPI has steadied over the past two months, with the Okanagan Valley posting modest gains. The Fraser Valley correction, however, continues unabated.

We previously highlighted this six-city divergence pattern in our RBC June report analysis, and the July data only reinforces it: stabilization with divergence, divergence within stabilization.

## Outside Ontario and B.C.: prices still rising, but at a slowing pace

In markets outside Ontario and B.C., the picture differs.

Home values continue to appreciate in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Quebec, and parts of Atlantic Canada. These regions still exhibit balanced or tight supply-demand dynamics. But RBC flags a critical nuance: the pace of price increases is generally moderating, driven by a combination of slower sales (Manitoba, Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia), an influx of sellers (Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Quebec), and rising inventory (Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia).

Calgary’s MLS HPI rose for the second time in three months in June, albeit on only slightly stronger demand. Edmonton has not yet found its footing—the local index continues its modest decline.

## The national index matters: 17 months of decline, finally halted

The significance of this signal cannot be overstated. The national MLS HPI was flat in June, ending a 17-month streak of consecutive declines. Prior to this, prices had been falling since late 2024.

Placed in the broader macro context of our 20-year housing cycle and 2026 inflection point analysis, this stabilization signal takes on greater meaning.

Interest rates are unlikely to fall further. Immigration cuts are cooling housing demand. In this environment, the supply side’s self-correction—slowing listing growth and reduced seller competition—has become the last line of defense supporting prices.

## The outlook: gradual, but uneven

RBC characterizes the path forward as “gradual but uneven.” The report notes that as some regions experience further price declines, improved affordability and better job prospects are slowly unlocking pent-up demand, drawing more buyers to market and draining inventory. Early stabilization signals in Ontario and B.C. are encouraging.

But risks remain. Geopolitical uncertainty, another energy price spike, or renewed labor market deterioration could prolong the current slump.

Key variables to watch in the coming months:

– Interest rate trajectory: If the Bank of Canada holds rates steady, mortgage costs will continue to weigh on purchasing power
– Immigration policy: Federal immigration quota reductions are already showing effects, directly cooling housing demand
– Employment: If job losses accelerate, even stabilized prices may not translate into meaningful sales recovery
– Inventory dynamics: Whether sellers continue entering the market and listing volumes accelerate will determine whether prices can truly stabilize

## What this means for different groups

For buyers currently house-hunting: This is a window of greater negotiating leverage. Inventory remains elevated and seller competition is waning. But be cautious—if rates stay high, future payment pressure could mount.

For current homeowners: If your property is in GTA or Vancouver core areas, the stabilization signal is worth noting. If you’re in Fraser Valley, Edmonton, or markets still in price adjustment, patience is likely required.

For those considering selling: Competition has eased compared to 2025, but that does not signal a sellers’ market. National prices remain down year-over-year, and a true sellers’ market has not returned.

Canada’s housing market is undergoing a slow but definite structural adjustment. Price stabilization is step one. A return to healthy supply-demand equilibrium remains a longer road ahead.