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The Great Divide: Why Canada’s National Housing Affordability Metrics Are Hiding a Fragmented Market

📅 31 3 月, 2026 14 min read

HousingAI Data-Driven · RBC Report Analysis

March 31, 2026 · Official RBC Release

📊 Source: RBC Economics (Q4 2025) · RPS Real Property Solutions ⚡ Report Date: March 31, 2026 14 Markets Covered Based on RBC Official Measures

Canadian Housing Affordability: National Gains Slow, Regional Divergence Intensifies

National affordability improved for an eighth consecutive quarter, with RBC's aggregate measure easing to 52.4% in Q4 2025 from its all-time high of 63% at end-2023. However, the pace of improvement has slowed markedly—quarterly declines moderated to -0.4 percentage points over the past two quarters, down from an average -1.6 ppts in the prior year and a half. By the second half of 2025, only about half of tracked markets remained on an easing trajectory. Vancouver and Toronto—where prices have been falling—account for most of the national measure's decline, while affordability in Montreal is at or near its worst level, and Quebec City is at its worst level in more than three decades.

📉 National Measure: 52.4% 📊 Quarterly Change: -0.4pp 🏙️ Markets Improving: ~50% 🏠 Vancouver: 88.2%

📐 RBC Housing Affordability Measure · Official Definition

What it measures: The RBC Housing Affordability Measure shows the proportion of median pre-tax household income required to cover ownership costs, including mortgage payments (principal and interest), property taxes, and utilities. Calculations are based on a 20% down payment, a 25-year amortization, and a five-year fixed mortgage rate. Benchmark prices are sourced from RPS Real Property Solutions.

Interpretation: A decline in the measure indicates improved affordability; an increase indicates deterioration. For example, the national measure of 52.4% means a typical household would need to spend 52.4% of its pre-tax income to cover ownership costs at current prices and interest rates.

Coverage: RBC's aggregate measure includes single-detached homes, condominium apartments, and other housing types (semi-detached, row houses, townhouses, plexes). Separate measures for single-detached and condominium apartments are occasionally published in historical reports but are not the focus of this release.

📐 Methodology: Median household income · 20% down payment · 25-year amortization · 5-year fixed rate 🏠 Source: RPS Real Property Solutions benchmark prices

📌 Key Findings: RBC's national affordability measure declined to 52.4% in Q4 2025, the eighth consecutive quarterly improvement. However, the pace has slowed—the past two quarters averaged -0.4pp, down from -1.6pp over the previous year and a half. More critically, only about half of tracked markets remained on an easing trajectory by the second half of 2025. Vancouver (-7.2pp) and Toronto (-6.9pp) accounted for most of the national decline, while affordability deteriorated in Montreal (+1.1pp), Quebec City (at its worst level in more than three decades), and Winnipeg (+0.4pp).

52.4%
National Measure

-0.4pp
Avg Quarterly Change (Last 2 Q)

~50%
Markets Still Improving

-7.2pp
Vancouver YoY Improvement

I. Counter-Narrative: National Measure Masks Regional Divergence

📊 What the RBC Report Reveals:

The decline in the national affordability measure is driven primarily by Vancouver (-7.2pp) and Toronto (-6.9pp). As RBC states directly: "Vancouver and Toronto—where prices have been falling this past year—account for most of the national measure’s decline." Meanwhile:

Montreal: Measure +1.1pp (deterioration), at or near its worst level
Quebec City: Measure at "worst level in more than three decades" (RBC original text)
Winnipeg: Measure +0.4pp (deterioration), widening gap from historical average
St. John's, Calgary, Edmonton: Measures stable or with modest changes, affordability remains reasonable

Conclusion: The narrative of "national improvement" is misleading. The accurate data description is—price declines in a few expensive markets drove the national measure lower, while about half of markets saw affordability stall or reach historic lows.

II. RBC Affordability Measures by Market (Q4 2025)

Market	RBC Aggregate Measure	YoY Change	vs Long-Term Average	RBC Qualitative Description
Vancouver	88.2%	-7.2pp	Significantly above avg (~+40pp)	Least affordable; only halfway into reversing pandemic spike; abundant inventory
Toronto	62.9%	-6.9pp	Significantly above avg (~+26pp)	Reversed ~80% of pandemic increase; buyers still face major hurdles
Victoria	66.0%	-1.5pp	Well above avg (+20pp+)	Buyers still face major hurdles; further price declines expected
Montreal	50.4%	+1.1pp	At or near worst level	Prices maintaining upward trajectory; tight inventory; buyer competition intense
Ottawa	43.2%	-0.8pp	Above avg (+6.7pp)	Affordability strains persist; buyers cautious
Calgary	41.5%	Flat	Near avg (+2.3pp)	Affordability normalized; resales +30% vs pre-pandemic
Halifax	41.2%	-0.5pp	Above avg (+11pp+)	Only 1/3 of pandemic increase reversed; challenges remain
Quebec City	35.9%	Deteriorated	Worst in 30+ years	Double-digit price gains; historically low inventory; no improvement this cycle
Edmonton	33.1%	Flat	Near avg (+0.7pp)	Resales +50% vs pre-pandemic; supply-demand tightness eased
Winnipeg	32.6%	+0.4pp	Above avg (+3.2pp)	Increasing stress at the margin; seller supply dropped
Saskatoon	32.0%	Volatile	Slightly above avg (+1.0pp)	Prices leveled off; affordability constructive
Saint John	30.9%	-0.3pp	Slightly above avg	Supply-demand conditions eased; further affordability restoration
St. John's	29.3%	+0.2pp	Below avg	Second most affordable; resales +50%+ vs pre-pandemic
Regina	26.3%	-0.3pp	Most affordable	Best affordability among tracked markets; tight supply supports demand

III. Single-Family vs Condo: Two Distinct Markets

🏠 Single-Family Burden Far Higher

Especially in major cities

RBC's aggregate measure includes both single-detached homes and condominium apartments (which together account for the bulk of housing stock). Historical data shows that in major cities (Vancouver, Toronto, Victoria), affordability measures for single-detached homes are significantly higher than for condos. Single-family homes have become an asset class accessible primarily to high-income households.

🏢 Condos as the "Safety Valve"

Maintaining market liquidity

In expensive markets like Vancouver and Toronto, condos maintain relatively active transaction volumes, providing an entry point for buyers who cannot afford single-detached homes. This is a critical structural feature of Canadian housing markets.

IV. Affordability Recovery Progress: Toronto Leads, Montreal Reverses

📊 Toronto · ~80%

Pandemic Spike Reversed

Toronto has reversed approximately 80% of its pandemic-era affordability deterioration—the fastest recovery among tracked markets. The national average is about 52%.

📊 Vancouver · ~50%

Pandemic Spike Reversed

Vancouver is only about halfway through reversing its pandemic spike, remaining in extreme unaffordable territory at 88.2%.

⚠️ Montreal · Recovery Stalled

Q4 2025 Deterioration of 1.3pp

Montreal's recovery that began in 2023 reversed in Q4 2025, with the measure rising 1.3 percentage points in the quarter. Affordability is now at or near its worst level.

📈 Quebec City · No Improvement

Worst Level in 30+ Years

RBC original text: "RBC's aggregate measure stands at its worst level in more than three decades." No improvement has occurred this cycle, with prices continuing to rise.

V. Transaction Activity: Affordability Drives Market Heat

📊 Pattern Revealed by RBC Data: Markets where affordability has normalized show significantly higher transaction volumes compared to pre-pandemic levels; markets where affordability remains stressed show weak activity.

Edmonton (33.1%, near historical avg): Resales ~50% above pre-pandemic levels
St. John's (29.3%, highly affordable): Resales more than 50% above pre-pandemic levels
Saskatoon (32.0%, slightly above avg): Resales more than 40% above pre-pandemic levels
Calgary (41.5%, near normalized): Resales ~30% above pre-pandemic levels
Vancouver/Toronto/Victoria (measures well above avg): Activity weak
Montreal/Quebec City (measures at historic lows): Activity off from peaks or volatile

Conclusion: Affordability is a leading indicator of transaction activity. When affordability returns to historical norms, buyer demand is activated; when affordability remains extreme, buyers stay on the sidelines.

VI. Price Trends: Two Divergent Camps

📉 Declining Price Camp

Vancouver, Toronto, Victoria

Prices continue to decline in these markets, with abundant inventory and clear buyer's market conditions. Falling prices are improving affordability (though levels remain high).

📈 Rising Price Camp

Montreal, Quebec City, Winnipeg, etc.

These markets have tight inventory supporting upward price momentum. Quebec City has seen "double-digit price gains." Rising prices are worsening affordability.

Implications of Divergent Price Trends: Price declines in Vancouver and Toronto are improving affordability (though still elevated), while price increases in Montreal and elsewhere are worsening affordability (now at historic lows). Both paths point to the same reality—Canadian housing markets are undergoing a sharp regional rebalancing.

VII. Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR): A Near-Term Market Indicator

📊 SNLR Interpretation (HousingAI Analysis Based on RPS Data Referenced by RBC): The sales-to-new-listings ratio is a more timely indicator of market heat than affordability measures.

Elevated SNLR → Seller's market → Upward price pressure → Montreal, Quebec City
Balanced SNLR → Stable prices → Calgary, Edmonton
Low SNLR → Buyer's market → Downward price pressure → Vancouver, Toronto, Victoria

Data Consistency: SNLR aligns with price trends. Montreal's elevated SNLR supports price increases; Vancouver's low SNLR aligns with continued price declines.

VIII. 2026 Interest Rate Outlook: Two Scenarios

📉 Scenario A: Rates Unchanged

RBC Baseline Assumption

RBC report: "With the Bank of Canada expected to be on hold through 2026, only price drops in certain markets and sustained household income growth can be counted on to lighten the ownership cost load." Affordability improvement would rely on price declines.

💰 Scenario B: Rate Cuts Begin

Market Expectation (HousingAI Extension)

If the Bank of Canada enters a rate-cutting cycle in 2026, the driver of affordability improvement would shift from "price declines" to "lower monthly payments." This would change the market narrative—prices could stabilize or even recover. This scenario is a HousingAI extension based on market expectations, not RBC's baseline.

IX. Data-Driven Strategy Framework

🏠 Buyers

Buyer's markets (Vancouver, Toronto, Victoria): Low SNLR signals continued downward price pressure. Patience may yield better entry points. Monitor SNLR for signs of stabilization.
Seller's markets (Montreal, Quebec City): Elevated SNLR signals upward price pressure. Consider waiting for inventory conditions to ease before entering.
Balanced markets (Calgary, Edmonton): Affordability normalized. Price discovery is more straightforward; interest rate changes have direct impact on monthly costs.
Condo vs single-family: In expensive markets, condos remain the primary entry point for first-time buyers, with significantly better affordability metrics historically.

📊 Investors

Regional rotation: Low-SNLR markets (Vancouver, Toronto) offer potential for discounted entry; high-SNLR markets (Montreal) suit longer-term hold strategies.
Lead indicators: SNLR > affordability measures. SNLR provides more timely signals on price direction.
Condo focus: In Vancouver and Toronto, condos offer better liquidity and more accessible price points.

📈 Sellers

Buyer's markets (Vancouver, Toronto): Competitive environment. Price competitively based on recent comparable sales. Waiting for rate signals may extend holding periods.
Seller's markets (Montreal, Quebec City): Pricing power remains. Monitor SNLR for early signs of cooling.
Balanced markets: Reasonable pricing is sufficient; deep discounts unnecessary.

⚠️ Risk Monitoring

SNLR trends: Track quarterly. A decline in high-SNLR markets may signal price inflection points.
Interest rate decisions: Critical variable starting Q2 2026. Use scenario analysis to test mortgage payment sensitivity.
Renewal cliff: 1.15 million mortgages coming up for renewal in 2026 (CMHC data). Monitor bank delinquency rates.

X. Frequently Asked Questions

What does the 52.4% national affordability measure mean?

It means a typical household would need to spend 52.4% of its pre-tax income to cover ownership costs (mortgage payments, property taxes, and utilities) based on current market prices, a 20% down payment, 25-year amortization, and a 5-year fixed mortgage rate. A declining measure indicates improving affordability.

Why is affordability improving nationally but getting worse in my city?

The national measure is dominated by price declines in Vancouver and Toronto. If you live in Montreal, Quebec City, Winnipeg, or other markets where affordability has deteriorated, local conditions differ significantly. Only about half of tracked markets were still improving by late 2025.

Why are Montreal and Quebec City affordability at historic lows?

Both markets face extreme supply constraints—historically low inventory levels. This tight supply supports continued price appreciation (Quebec City saw double-digit gains). As RBC states, Quebec City's measure is at its "worst level in more than three decades," while Montreal is at or near its worst level.

How different are single-family and condo affordability?

While this report focuses on aggregate measures, historical RBC data shows single-family affordability measures are significantly higher than condo measures in major cities (Vancouver, Toronto, Victoria). This gap explains why condos serve as the primary entry point for first-time buyers in expensive markets.

Is now a good time to buy in Vancouver or Toronto?

Market indicators (low SNLR) suggest buyer's market conditions with continued downward price pressure. If you anticipate rate cuts in 2026, current conditions may represent a buyer-friendly window. Condos offer more accessible price points than single-family homes.

Why are Calgary and Edmonton markets relatively healthy?

Affordability has normalized—Calgary at 41.5% (long-term avg 39.2%), Edmonton at 33.1% (long-term avg ~32.4%). Market balance indicators are in neutral territory, prices are stable, and transaction volumes are 30-50% above pre-pandemic levels, showing healthy buyer activity.

💡 Data Summary: Six Facts (Based on RBC Report)

1. National improvement is slowing — Last two quarters averaged -0.4pp, down from -1.6pp previously.
2. Regional divergence is the new normal — Only ~50% of markets still improving by late 2025; post-pandemic synchronization has ended.
3. Vancouver and Toronto dominate national data — These two markets account for most of the national measure's decline.
4. Single-family vs condo form two distinct markets — Historical data shows single-family affordability measures are significantly higher than condos, especially in major cities.
5. Montreal and Quebec City at historic lows — Quebec City at "worst level in more than three decades"; Montreal at or near worst level.
6. Affordability drives transaction activity — Markets with normalized affordability (Edmonton, St. John's) show transaction volumes 50%+ above pre-pandemic levels; stressed markets show weak activity.

One-sentence summary: Canadian housing markets have returned to their normal state of regional divergence after a period of unusual synchronization. National measures no longer apply to individual decisions—local supply-demand dynamics, market heat indicators (SNLR), and affordability's position relative to historical norms are the critical variables.