Exclusive: Toronto & Vancouver Condo Inventory Hits Record High — The Fig Leaf Has Been Torn Off
25,000+ completions flood the market as buyers vanish. 60 months of developer inventory. The numbers CMHC doesn't want you to ignore.
Canada’s two largest condo markets are drowning in supply — and the developers holding the bag have 60 months to find a buyer. The numbers reveal a structural crisis that will reshape urban housing for years to come.
The Twin Collapse: Toronto & Vancouver by the Numbers
Both cities set completion records in 2024 — units built during the pandemic boom are now landing in a market with structurally weak demand. Toronto condo prices have been falling for 10 consecutive quarters, while Vancouver’s 11% year-over-year decline is the steepest since 2008.
Developer Nightmare: 60 Months to Sell One Floor
Urbanation’s Q2 2025 data reveals the deepest crisis in the new-build sector. Toronto developers are sitting on 2,478 completed, unsold condo units — a 102% increase year-over-year, and more than five times higher than two years ago.
At the current rate of sales (131 units per quarter from completed buildings), the market faces 60 months of standing inventory. That is five years of supply with zero new launches.
Meanwhile, 55% of pre-construction Toronto condos went unsold as of Q1 2025 — just below the record 56% set at end of 2024. Lenders require 70% pre-sales before releasing construction financing. The math does not work: new condo construction starts collapsed 57% year-over-year in Q2 2025, and are now 84% below levels from two years ago.
The pipeline feeding Canada’s urban housing supply has effectively been turned off. Today’s glut will become tomorrow’s shortage — and nobody is talking about it.
The Supply Paradox: Flood Today, Famine Tomorrow
Canada’s condo crisis is a story of two timelines running in opposite directions. Right now: record completions, collapsing demand, prices in freefall. Developers are cancelling projects at 5–10x the rate of 2022.
By 2027–2028: the construction pipeline — already down 41% from its peak of 105,864 units under construction — will produce a severe supply shortage. Units that should have broken ground in 2024–2025 were never started.
TD Economics forecasts condo prices will fall a total of 15–20% from their 2023 peak by end of 2025, with only a modest recovery in 2026. Re/Max Canada warns that GTA absorption of surplus inventory is unlikely to meaningfully improve before mid-2026.
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