Has Canada's Housing Market Hit Bottom? Montreal Data Says No — Detached Up 7% But Condos Are Drowning

Yahoo Finance interviewed multiple veterans who have lived through several real estate cycles. They unanimously agree: the current environment is more complex than any previous bottoming process. Frank Clayton, Senior Research Fellow at Toronto Metropolitan University (who started at CMHC in 1967),直言: "This is a fairly typical real estate cycle — demand surges, supply can't keep up, prices explode, government panics. But this time, unpredictable external shocks keep coming." The article summarizes five variables that disrupt market timing:

Variable 1: Policy "U-turns" Create Short-Term Volatility. The federal government and Ontario announced the removal of HST on new condos (previously only for first-time buyers). Boaz Feiner, principal of Geranium Homes, said this did stimulate low-rise home sales, but the effect has been offset by other negative factors. Related: Greater Toronto Area housing market March 2026: New listings plunge 16.7%.

Variable 2: Rate Path "Hijacked" by Geopolitical Conflict. Dan Eisner, CEO of True North Mortgage, noted that in just three to four weeks, five-year fixed rates spiked 50 basis points due to Middle East war driving oil and inflation expectations. Reference: 2026 Interest Rate Scenarios: If the Bank of Canada cuts rates, will affordability reach a turning point?

Variable 3: Employment is the Ultimate "Lynchpin." Eisner emphasized: "Family income is the number one predictor of whether you buy a house or not. A person doesn't buy a house if they don't have a job, or if they're worried about their job." Deep dive: Canada Employment & Housing Market Deep Linkage: Housing Divergence and Renewal Pressure Under 6.7% Unemployment.

Variable 4: Immigration Reversal. Clayton admitted: "Explosive immigration growth was new, but now we're experiencing population decline (referring to temporary resident outflows). No one predicted this." Extended reading: Canada's Brain Drain Crisis: 120,000 People Left in 2025 — High-Skilled Talent Heading South.

Variable 5: Condo "Reservoir" Spreads Nationwide. Clayton judged: "Condos are definitely not at the bottom yet — there are just too many." BMO Senior Economist Robert Kavcic added: "BC's condo market still has massive supply in the pipeline, prices could fall another 5-10%, then flatten for a long period." See also: Vancouver Housing Market Weekly: Detached sales up 8.3% — bottom signal or flash in the pan?

Yahoo Finance clearly states: must discuss by market and property type. The national average price decline masks structural divergence. Let's use the latest data to show this "ice and fire":

▌ National Level: Bottom Not Yet Reached, Condos Especially Dangerous. Zoocasa's Senior Director of Sales Brittany Kostov believes the market is in a "late recession" phase — prices have corrected, inventory is ample, buyers remain nervous. This is a typical "bottom zone," but does not mean an immediate rebound. CREA数据显示 prices were almost unchanged month-over-month in February, down just 0.2%, but Kavcic predicts another 5-10% downside, especially for condos. The fundamental reason: rental yields are too low, requiring price cuts to clear inventory. Related: Canada Rent Plunges 5.3%: National average falls to $2,008, largest drop in 5 years.

▌ Quebec Exception: The "Jobs Moat" for Detached Homes. Contrary to national trends, Quebec detached homes show remarkable resilience. According to QPAREB March data: Montreal detached median price up 7% to $652,250, sales up 2%, average days on market shortened from 42 to 33 days. Quebec City's unemployment rate is just 2.6% (lowest among major CMAs), with detached median price up 8% to $473,950, selling in just 19 days on average. This perfectly validates Eisner's view: strong employment = homebuying confidence. Weekly tracker: Montreal Housing Market Weekly: Detached prices up 7% as low unemployment defies national trend — condo inventory surges 21%.

▌ Montreal Condos: A Microcosm of National "Supply Shock." Montreal condo median price rose just 1% YoY, while active listings surged 21%, with average days on market reaching 48 days. This mirrors the struggles in Toronto GTA: Sales up 1.7% but prices down 6.7% and Vancouver: Detached sales up 8.3% but condo supply remains a headwind. Only Laval, due to lower prices (median $425,000), saw condo transactions jump 25%, becoming a rare exception. This shows that even in a condo bear market, "value for money" can create independent momentum.

In the Yahoo Finance article, Kostov provides a decision framework: "Bottoms usually happen in a late recession phase — prices have already corrected, inventory is plentiful, and buyers are still nervous. The bottom truly confirms when buyers start feeling like they might miss out again." So, in this "almost-bottom-but-not-quite" phase, how should different participants act?

For owner-occupant buyers (especially detached homes): Clayton believes "single-family homes have no further room to fall," supported by demographics. In areas with strong employment like Montreal and Quebec City, reasonably priced detached homes sell quickly (33 days), the risk of waiting for the "exact bottom" may outweigh the risk of missing out. Strategy: focus on local job markets (unemployment below 6%) and prioritize supply-scarce low-rise housing. Practical guide: Calgary Real Estate March 2026: 2 months supply for detached, 5 months for condos — what buyers and sellers need to know.

For condo buyers/investors: Experts unanimously agree condos haven't bottomed. Kavcic points out that unless interest rates fall significantly (which he doesn't expect this year), prices must fall further to restore rental yields. In downtown Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver core areas, buyers have significant bargaining power and selection, and can patiently wait for inventory to peak (expected second half of 2026). However, caution: if interprovincial migration to Quebec continues, some low-priced Montreal condos (like Laval) may stabilize early. Risk assessment: Canada HELOC debt hits six-year high: Risks and opportunities of home equity lines of credit.

For all participants: The illusion of "perfect timing" must be abandoned. As Feiner said: "Uncertainty is decreasing, but geopolitical and trade risks remain." It is recommended to establish a decision-making logic based on a holding period of at least 5-7 years, focusing on local employment fundamentals, rental cash flow, and valuation percentiles relative to historical averages, rather than trying to bet on month-to-month fluctuations. Macro perspective: Canada Housing Market Weekly – April 2026: TD's sharp downgrade, Toronto -6.7%, and growing regional divergence.