Montreal Housing Market Weekly: Detached Prices Up 7% as Low Unemployment Defies National Trend — Condo Inventory Surges 21%

The most fundamental reason Montreal detached homes have been able to rise against the national trend is simple: employment. Quebec's unemployment rate of 5.4% is far below Canada's national rate of 6.7%. Quebec City's unemployment rate of just 2.6% makes it one of the strongest employment markets in the country. Employment is the foundational fuel for housing — when people have stable jobs, they feel confident buying a home.

March data clearly shows this correlation: average days on market for detached homes shortened from 42 to 33 days. Transaction efficiency is improving, and reasonably priced homes are moving faster. The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) of 0.69 remains in seller's market territory. This means that in the detached market, sellers still hold pricing power.

More notably, the detached price increase is not "artificial" — it's supported by actual transactions. March detached transactions reached 2,567 units, up 2% year-over-year. While the increase is modest, in a context of generally weak national sales, this positive growth itself is telling. Buyer confidence comes from employment expectations — when you're not worried about losing your job, you're willing to sign a 25-year mortgage contract.

Quebec City is an even more extreme example. With an unemployment rate of just 2.6% — the lowest in the country — March detached median prices reached $473,950, up 8% year-over-year, an even higher increase than Montreal. Average days on market for detached homes was just 19 days, the fastest market pace in the province. This illustrates a simple principle: when employment is strong, people are still willing to buy homes even when interest rates are high.

In stark contrast to detached homes, the condo market is facing significant inventory pressure. Active listings surged 21% year-over-year — the largest increase among all property types. Condo median prices rose only 1% year-over-year, essentially flat. Average days on market was 48 days — 15 days longer than detached homes.

Why, in the same city, are detached homes and condos moving along completely different curves? The answer lies on the supply side. New listings for detached homes are falling, while new listings for condos are increasing significantly. Investor-owned condos, facing downward pressure on rents, are being pushed to market.

According to QPAREB's market analysis report, the surge in condo inventory comes mainly from two sources: newly completed condos entering the resale market, and investor-owners choosing to sell as rent growth slows. This aligns with Toronto GTA's condo supply pressures and Vancouver's condo inventory reaching 6,354 units — condo oversupply is a national issue, not unique to Montreal.

Regional data further confirms this assessment. On the Island of Montreal, condo prices were flat year-over-year, with active listings up 18% — the area with the greatest inventory pressure. On the South Shore, the median condo price of $405,000 rose only 1% year-over-year, with inventory pressure also rising. Only Laval's condo market remained relatively healthy, with a median price of $425,000 up 7% year-over-year and transaction volume surging 25%. Laval has been able to "buck the trend" because its condo prices are relatively lower, attracting first-time buyers.

Compared to Toronto GTA's adjusting market with prices down 6.7% and Vancouver's early-stage recovery with detached bottom signals, Montreal's housing market "resilience" is reflected in several factors:

Factor #1: Low unemployment. Quebec's 5.4% unemployment rate is among the lowest in the country. When people have jobs, they can take on mortgage debt. This is the most fundamental and essential support factor. Montreal's employment structure is also changing — job growth in the tech and life sciences sectors is attracting high-income young professionals into the housing market.

Factor #2: Relative affordability. Montreal's median detached price of $652,250 compares to Toronto's $1,342,375 and Vancouver's $1,854,800. Even after a 7% increase, Montreal detached homes are still half the price of Toronto and one-third of Vancouver. For buyers priced out of Toronto and Vancouver, Montreal is an attractive alternative.

Factor #3: Interprovincial migration. In recent years, Quebec has attracted significant interprovincial migration from Ontario and British Columbia. In 2025, Quebec had a net interprovincial inflow of approximately 35,000 people. These migrants bring wealth accumulated in other provinces, giving them strong purchasing power when buying homes in Montreal. This is a key reason why Montreal detached prices have been able to rise against the national trend.

Factor #4: Policy environment. Quebec's rental regulations provide strong tenant protection, but this also means higher barriers for investor-landlords. This has somewhat curbed speculative demand, making Montreal's housing market less "bubbly" than Toronto and Vancouver. When market adjustments come, Montreal's declines are also smaller.

The regional divergence within Montreal is also worth noting.

South Shore: Strongest demand. The South Shore saw total transactions of 1,284 units in March, up 12% year-over-year — the fastest-growing region in the Montreal CMA. Detached median price reached $660,250 (+6%), condos $405,000 (+1%), and plexes $800,000 (+8%). The South Shore's advantages include relatively lower prices (about 20% lower than the Island), good school districts, and planned light rail projects. These factors together attract many young families.

Island of Montreal: Highest prices, moderate growth. On the Island, detached median price reached $805,000 (+3%), condos $481,000 (flat). The Island is Montreal's most expensive region, with limited price elasticity. Condo prices were flat year-over-year, with active listings up 18%, indicating the greatest condo inventory pressure on the Island.

Laval: The condo market "outlier." Laval's median condo price reached $425,000 (+7%), with transaction volume surging 25%. Laval's condos have been able to rise against the trend because of their relatively lower prices, attracting first-time buyers. This shows that even in a weak condo market, areas with good value for money still see demand.

North Shore: Sales down, prices firm. The North Shore saw total transactions of 1,192 units, down 4% year-over-year — the only sub-region with declining sales. But detached median price reached $590,000 (+5%), condos $370,000 (+2%) — prices remain firm. The North Shore's sales decline likely reflects reduced supply rather than weakening demand.

Based on current data, the trajectory of Montreal's 2026 housing market will depend on three key variables:

Variable #1: Whether Quebec employment remains strong. The core driver of Montreal detached price increases is employment. If Quebec's unemployment rate stays below 6%, detached prices will continue to find support. If the job market deteriorates, detached price growth will lose momentum. Currently, Quebec's economic fundamentals remain healthy, but trade uncertainty is a risk factor.

Variable #2: When condo inventory peaks. The 21% surge in condo inventory is Montreal's biggest pressure point. If inventory continues to increase, condo prices will face greater downward pressure. If inventory begins to be absorbed, the condo market may stabilize. Condo inventory is expected to peak in the second half of 2026.

Variable #3: Whether interprovincial migration continues. Quebec has attracted significant interprovincial migration in recent years, bringing home buying demand. If the interprovincial migration trend continues, Montreal detached demand will remain strong. If the trend reverses, demand will weaken. Currently, Quebec's relative housing affordability remains an important factor attracting interprovincial migrants.